Enhanced vs. Moderate: What do the risk levels mean for severe storms?
As severe weather approaches Central Ohio this week, perhaps you've heard meteorologists mention specific risk levels -- enhanced, moderate, etc.We took a look The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has released a detailed risk level (TSTM) for severe weather in Ohio, with various risk levels including "general or non-severe thunderstorms" with a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms forecasted. The TSTM risk is indicated in light green on storm maps and is usually accompanied by a "TSTL" risk. Other risk levels include "marginal risk" with limited organization or low coverage or severe intensity. "Highlight" or "highlight" risk, which is expected from numerous intense tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex, and "extreme severe" instances.
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As severe weather approaches Central Ohio this week, perhaps you've heard meteorologists mention specific risk levels -- enhanced, moderate, etc.
We took a look at the Storm Prediction Center's website for a scientific breakdown of each of the five levels:
The first one is obviously the least severe and doesn't even have number attached to it. A "TSTM" risk is shown in light green on storm maps and is described this way by the SPC: "General or non-severe thunderstorms - Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period."
And below are the five more serious risk levels, straight from the SPC:
• MRGL (dark green) - Marginal risk - An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
• SLGT (yellow) - Slight risk - An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
• ENH (orange) - Enhanced risk - An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
• MDT (red) - Moderate risk - An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail, or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
• HIGH (magenta) - High risk - An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).